Friday, September 16, 2011

Greek Default.Europe's Lehman?



People are still debating about the Greek default and have started to compare Greece with Lehman brothers,according to Greece, it appears that if Greece is let to default,it might just have a Chain reaction with Italy and Spain next in line.With Italy bloated budget, markets are having zero trust in the Italian political establishment.
In fact, with out the support of German finances, it will be difficult for Italy,Spain & France  to bailout  their banks.
Entire Europe is banking on Germany to help them over come this crisis.

With Germany insisting on austerity measures,the growth of the entire region is under threat.If Greece exits from EU,then it will certainly create quite a few legal issues.Would the companies be able to convert their contracts in devalued drachmas.
Rate at which markets are willing to lend to governments for 10 years:

· Germany: 1.74%

· France: 2.55%

· Spain: 5.36%

· Italy: 5.69%

· Ireland: 8.45%

· Portugal: 10.76%

· Greece: 21.25%
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 13 September

Markets have been talking about Why lend to a country that could follow Greece's lead and default, or convert your euro cash into e.g. devalued liras.
If Greek Devalue, that way, it can still finance its govt, spending however, its imports cost and inflation will certainly go way up.Even if Greece stops paying its debt,its bank will still collapse.
Probably it is wise to stay together!

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